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The World Bank (WB), following other international institutions, slashed its growth forecast for the global economy. The IMF and UNCTAD had already lowered their forecasts. Increased trade tensions, coupled with a heightened level of uncertainty, resulted in a large-scale revision of the WB’s estimates: down for 70% of economies at once.
According to the World Bank, the world economy is expected to grow 2.3% in 2025, following a 2.8% expansion in 2024 (in January, the forecast was 2.7%). The forecast for 2026 has also been adjusted: down to 2.4% from 2.7%.
U.S. GDP, which experienced 2.8% growth in 2024, is projected to expand by 1.4% this year (down from the 2.3% expansion predicted in January) and by 1.6% (2%) next year.
Despite the sustained increase in tariffs imposed by the U.S., China’s GDP is projected to expand by 4.5% in 2025 and 4% in 2026. Its stable growth rates are also likely to be supported by further redirection of exports.
The euro area economy will grow by 0.7% in 2025 and 0.8% in 2026 (against 0.9% in 2024). In January, analysts were expecting expansions of 1% and 1.2%, respectively.
Because of disputes and disrupted supply chains, global trade will grow by 1.8% this year after a 3.4% increase in 2024. A 2.5% expansion in trade was expected early the year.