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The global economy is set to face further fragmentation over the next three years, according to the Chief Economists Outlook from the World Economic Forum (WEF, to be held in Davos, Switzerland, on 20–24 January). The survey draws on the perspectives of representatives of international organisations, banks, and major corporations.
Fragmentation will have the greatest impact on trade – 79% of respondents are certain of this. This is particularly the case for trade in goods: 94% of economists expect its fragmentation to continue, while 59% see the same trend for trade in services. The main drivers of de-globalisation will be protectionism, supply chain restructuring, and national security concerns.
The trade war between the U.S. and China is expected to lead to changes in the rules of global trade, predicted by 89% of analysts.
However, analysts expect no major shocks: they believe that the global trade landscape has already adapted to periodic tightening of restrictions. So far, economists interviewed by the WEF suggest that the growth rate of global trade will hover around 3.4% in 2025. But trade operators will have to spend more to maintain steady supplies: experts agree that costs will rise at an accelerated pace over the next three years.