There could be a risk of recession for the world economy next year, World Bank President David Malpass said at a joint discussion with International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Reuters reports. Gergieva agreed with him.
According to the IMF forecasts, global economic growth this year will be 3.2% (down from the 6% seen in 2021), and in 2023 it will slow down to 2.7% (0.2 percentage points lower than its June forecast).
The IMF points to high risks of an additional slowdown in growth - with a 25% probability it will be less than 2%, and a third of the global economy will face a recession this or next year due to the contraction of the economies of the US, eurozone countries and China.
The IMF has worsened its forecast for China - now GDP growth is expected this year by 3.2%, next - by 4.4%.
On the contrary, the IMF now expects the Russian economy will contract by 3.4% this year and 2.3% next year (plus 2.6 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points to the previous forecast).
In September, the international rating agency Fitch downgraded its forecast for global GDP growth in 2022 to 2.4% from 2.9% expected in June. According to analysts, the prospects for the global economy are seriously affected by the energy crisis in Europe, high inflation, and the acceleration of the global monetary policy tightening.
According to Fitch’s forecast, by the end of this year, the eurozone and the UK will enter into a recession, and in mid-2023, a moderate economic downturn will begin in the US. GDP growth in the eurozone and the United States in annual terms will be close to 0% in 2023.