The global economy will slow down, but with a different pace

Global economic growth will continue to slow down not only this year, but also next year, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook for 2023-24.

At the same time, growth dynamics will be uneven. In OECD countries, economic growth will slow from 2.8% in 2022 to 0.8% in 2023. The leading factor is the surge in energy prices: for example, the total expenditure spent on energy in OECD countries this year could reach almost 17% of GDP (this is almost twice as much as a year earlier).

In non-OECD countries, growth rates will be 3.4% this year, 3.3% next year and 3.8% in 2024, according to the OECD forecast. In China, the growth is expected to accelerate from the current record low value of 3.3% to 4.6%, followed by a slowdown to 4.1%. In India, on the contrary, the growth could slow from the current 6.6% to 5.7% in 2023 before speeding up further to 6.9% in 2024.

The growth of the global economy this year will be 3.1%, which is almost two times less than in 2021. Next year, the increase in global GDP may be even more modest - 2.2%. In 2024, the indicators may accelerate to 2.7% amid the slowdown in rates by leading central banks.