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In its autumn macroeconomic forecast, the European Commission revised its estimate of global GDP growth for 2025, predicting that the global economy would grow by 3.1% rather than 2.9%. (In 2024, growth was 3.3%.) The global economy could also grow by 3.1% in 2026 (up from 3% in the spring forecast) and by 3.2% in 2027 (remaining unchanged). The European Commission notes that growth prospects remain ‘highly uncertain’.
Moderate yet stable growth is forecast for the European economy this year. EU GDP is expected to grow by 1.4% (compared to the forecast of 1.1% in spring), while Euro area GDP is expected to grow by 1.3% (compared to 0.9%). The increase in shipments to foreign markets also made a significant contribution to the improvement in estimates. Analysts are concerned about the terms of the trade deal with the U.S., the growing EU budget deficit caused by increased defence spending, and systemic issues, including an ageing population.
Against the backdrop of active export expansion in the second and third quarters, the outlook for China has improved significantly this year: according to the European Commission, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% (up from 4.1%). The European Commission expects the U.S. economy to grow by 1.8% in 2025, rather than the 1.6% predicted in the spring.
Analysts have revised their GDP growth forecast for Russia in 2025 to 0.8%, down from 1.7% in spring (compared to 4.3% in 2024). The European Commission relied on data on economic cooling in Russia when revising the indicator.