According to the updated OECD forecast, the world economy will grow more slowly over the next two years than it did in 2022 (3.2%). It will be 2.6% and 2.9% over the next two years, respectively. However, both of these estimates have been improved from the November forecast due to improved expectations for inflation: it will decline, but slowly.
In the eurozone, all major economies of the region will face a decline in economic growth compared to 2022 (in general, the currency bloc’s GDP increased by 3.5% at that time). This year’s GDP growth is predicted at 0.8%, and next year it will accelerate to 1.5%.
According to the current forecast, Germany will be able to avoid a recession: the growth may be as low as 0.3%, while in November it was expected to decrease by 0.3%. The country’s GDP might grow by 1.7% in 2024.
In France and Italy, the growth will be 0.6% and 0.7% (compared to 2.6% and 3.8% in 2022), and it will also accelerate to 1.3% and 1% in 2024. The Spanish economy will grow by 1.7% in both years.
In the UK, the GDP is expected to decrease by 0.2% this year with an increase of 0.9% a year later, while the US economy is forecast to grow by 1.5% in 2023 (improved by 1 percentage point) and by 0.9% in 2024.
The forecast for China has improved significantly: its economic growth may accelerate to 5.3% this year (it was 3% in 2022), while in 2024 it will slow down again to 4.9%. The GDP of India and Indonesia will also grow rapidly.
In contrast, the growth of Saudi Arabia will slow from 8.7% in 2022 to 2.6% this year (down 2.4 percentage points at once, probably due to lower oil prices). The country’s growth rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2024.
For Russia, the forecast has been improved for 2023 – to minus 2.5%, but has worsened for the next year – to minus 0.5%.
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The American bank, Goldman Sachs, also lowered its forecasts for the GDP growth of the eurozone countries this year to 0.7%. Earlier, the bank predicted a 1% growth, the Financial Times reports.