OECD predicts slower growth of the Western economies

According to the updated OECD forecast, the world economy will grow more slowly over the next two years than it did in 2022 (3.2%). It will be 2.6% and 2.9% over the next two years, respectively. However, both of these estimates have been improved from the November forecast due to improved expectations for inflation: it will decline, but slowly.

In the eurozone, all major economies of the region will face a decline in economic growth compared to 2022 (in general, the currency bloc’s GDP increased by 3.5% at that time). This year’s GDP growth is predicted at 0.8%, and next year it will accelerate to 1.5%.

According to the current forecast, Germany will be able to avoid a recession: the growth may be as low as 0.3%, while in November it was expected to decrease by 0.3%. The country’s GDP might grow by 1.7% in 2024.

In France and Italy, the growth will be 0.6% and 0.7% (compared to 2.6% and 3.8% in 2022), and it will also accelerate to 1.3% and 1% in 2024. The Spanish economy will grow by 1.7% in both years.

In the UK, the GDP is expected to decrease by 0.2% this year with an increase of 0.9% a year later, while the US economy is forecast to grow by 1.5% in 2023 (improved by 1 percentage point) and by 0.9% in 2024.

The forecast for China has improved significantly: its economic growth may accelerate to 5.3% this year (it was 3% in 2022), while in 2024 it will slow down again to 4.9%. The GDP of India and Indonesia will also grow rapidly.

In contrast, the growth of Saudi Arabia will slow from 8.7% in 2022 to 2.6% this year (down 2.4 percentage points at once, probably due to lower oil prices). The country’s growth rate is expected to be 3.7% in 2024.

For Russia, the forecast has been improved for 2023 – to minus 2.5%, but has worsened for the next year – to minus 0.5%.


The American bank, Goldman Sachs, also lowered its forecasts for the GDP growth of the eurozone countries this year to 0.7%. Earlier, the bank predicted a 1% growth, the Financial Times reports.