According to the baseline forecast, the global GDP growth rate will decline from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023 (0.1 percentage point lower than the previous forecast) and then will stabilize at 3.0 percent in 2024. The growth in advanced economies is expected to slow down noticeably, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.
In the eurozone, the GDP growth rate will decrease to 0.8% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, respectively.
The forecast notes that escalation of the conflict in Ukraine could cause an energy crisis in Europe and worsen food problems in low-income countries. Although the gas crisis was averted during the winter of 2022–2023, the threat of a sharp increase in fuel prices next winter remains. There is also the risk of increasing food prices if the Black Sea grain export deal is not extended.
With regard to China, the IMF’s estimates remained unchanged (5.2% and 4.5%), while for India they were lowered to 5.9% and 6.3%. As for Russia, the forecast was improved with growth of up to 0.7% this year (previously it was 0.4%), but the estimate for next year was lowered immediately by 0.8 percentage points, to 1.3%.