In its World Economic Outlook issued in October, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global economic growth of 3.2% in 2024 and 2025. This is one-tenth of a percentage point lower than forecast in July for 2025.
The U.S. is the only economy whose forecast was revised upward for both 2024 and 2025. The forecasts for 2024 have also been revised upward for Brazil and the UK.
The forecast for the euro zone economy’s growth has been lowered to 0.8% in 2024 (-0.1 p.p. compared to the July forecast) and to 1.2% in 2025 (-0.3 p.p.). The higher growth in 2024 compared to 2023 (0.4%) is the result of stronger exports of goods from the euro zone.
The IMF lowered its growth expectations for China’s economy in 2024 by two-tenths of a percentage point to 4.8%; its growth forecast for 2025 remains unchanged at 4.5%.
Russia’s economic growth, according to the IMF, will remain the same in 2024 as in 2023, i.e. 3.6 %, while in 2025 it will drop to 1.3 %.
The IMF expects China, India, Russia, and Brazil, which are BRICS members, to account for most global economic growth over the next five years. Therefore, the world economy is set to rely even more heavily on the BRICS group rather than G-7, says Bloomberg based on the IMF’s data analysis.
Source: imf.org, bloomberg.com