The World Trade Organization (WTO) economists have lowered their forecast for growth in the global trade in goods in 2023 from 1.7% to 0.8%.
In 2024, they expect the growth rate to reach 3.3%, according to the published report on the outlook for global commerce. At the same time, the report’s authors drew attention to emerging signs of supply chain fragmentation, which could jeopardize the relatively positive forecast for 2024.
The WTO expects the global GDP to grow by 2.6% this year and by 2.5% next year.
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The October forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggests that the global economic growth rate will slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical average (2000–2019) of 3.8 percent.
In developed economies, the rate is expected to slow from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024, as the policy tightening starts to have a negative impact.
The emerging and developing economies will experience a moderate decline in growth from 4.1% in 2022 to 4.0% in both 2023 and 2024.