Eng
In its latest Autumn Economic Forecast, the European Commission leaves its estimates for global GDP growth unchanged at 3.2% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025 and 2026.
The EC estimates that after a prolonged period of stagnation, the European economy is returning to ’modest growth’. The EU’s GDP grew by 1% in the third quarter. This compares with 0.8% in April–June. However, growth may slow somewhat in the fourth quarter, partly due to a subdued recovery in Germany and the fading ’Olympic momentum’ in France. On the back of these expectations, EU GDP growth estimates in the Autumn Forecast are revised downwards slightly: from 1% (in the Spring Forecast) to 0.9% for 2024 and from 1.6% to 1.5% for 2025.
The plans of Donald Trump, who has won the US presidential election and threatened to impose duties of 10–20% on imports of all European goods, are seen as one of the key risks to the sustainable growth of the European economy. Germany and Italy, which export more to the US than other European countries, will be hit the hardest.
The US policy will also affect the sustainability of China’s economic growth. As a reminder, the president-elect intends to impose 60% tariffs on all goods from China. The European Commission admits that the 2025 Forecast could be revised significantly in this regard – for now, China’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.6%, down from 4.9% in 2024.
The only major economy whose forecast has not been affected by the US election results is the Russian Federation. Its GDP is expected to grow by 3.5% in 2024, instead of 2.9% in the Spring Forecast. The improved estimates for Russian economic growth are explained by the fact that the risks embedded in the forecasts have not yet materialised. However, the EC expects growth in Russia to slow next year – estimated at 1.8% amid a contraction in investment and consumption.