We continue to publish the results of the logistics audit in the new conditions. The marketing research and analytics department of TELS Group has prepared an analytical report assessing the volumes of different market sectors and their response to crisis, forecasting economic development and the volumes of transportation and logistics market by transport modes and transportation routes.
The first article on Logistics 2020-2021. Life After the Pandemic published in November covers data from the report concerning the market trends that have been developing rapidly during the pandemic and are shaping the future of transportation and logistics. This article will review the capacities of different industries and the changes taking place in crises like the COVID-19 pandemic.
Impact of the pandemic on the industries
The reaction of industries to the coronavirus pandemic this year differs greatly. Some industries saw a serious decrease in demand for international transport and logistics services, which reached 40-50% during the peak crisis period (construction materials; iron and steel), while certain industries experienced an increase of 20-30% (soft drinks, juices and water; FMCG).
Such a circumstantial reduction in some industry does not mean that the industry will become less attractive for logistics providers in future. Sometimes the capacity of the industry (the demand for logistics services) allows it to remain attractive even against the temporary reduction.
For example, even though machinery manufacturing, chemical and construction materials industries have shown a considerable decrease during the pandemic, their capacity allows them to remain on the list of industries with a high demand for logistics services. On the contrary, an increase in demand in pharmaceutical and woodworking industries during the pandemic didn’t bring them larger capacity, which still remains low.
Taking into account the response of industries to the crisis and their capacities, we can distinguish the following most attractive industries for logistics providers: soft drinks, juices and water; FMCG; automotive; pulp and paper; chemical; food; machinery manufacturing.
Ranking of market sectors based on the volume and dynamics of road transport orders during the crisis
|
Industry (in descending order) |
Dynamics during the crisis |
Industry volume, transported by road in 2019, imports to the Russian Federation |
|
Soft drinks, juices and water |
29% |
49 500 |
|
FMCG |
20% |
36 585 |
|
Pulp and paper |
5% |
51 659 |
|
Automotive |
2% |
40 043 |
|
Food |
-4% |
52 958 |
|
Chemical |
-10% |
89 994 |
|
Machinery manufacturing |
-23% |
102 087 |
|
Construction materials |
-46% |
228 555 |
|
Iron and steel |
-50% |
89 846 |
|
Agricultural products |
-56% |
31 908 |
|
Woodworking |
7% |
9 669 |
|
Pharmaceutical |
2% |
18 134 |
|
Electronics and home appliances |
-14% |
16 497 |
|
Furniture |
-16% |
8 177 |
|
Textile |
-16% |
6 533 |
|
Clothes, shoes, accessories |
-17% |
9 810 |
|
Other |
-36% |
10 778 |
P.S.: It is important to understand that each industry has its own internal growth prospects, which are unlikely to affect their capacity to a large extent but can redistribute their supply chains. For example, great changes are expected in the automotive industry due to the development of electric vehicles (this implies a new set of components). And the Forbes shares the hypothesis that Generation Z will reduce the consumption of alcohol and meat significantly.