The International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased its global GDP growth forecast for 2023 by 0.2 percentage points to 2.9% (in 2022, growth was 3.4%).
US GDP in 2023, according to the fund’s updated forecasts, will increase by 1.4% - up from the previous forecast by 0.4 p.p. The IMF now expects China’s economy to grow 5.2% this year - this is 0.8 p.p. more than in the previous forecast. Economic growth in the euro zone will be 0.7% in 2023 (+0.2 p.p.).
IMF experts have significantly raised their expectations for the Russian economy in 2023 - from the 2.3% contraction to 0.3% growth. This is better than the expectations of the Russian authorities predicting a drop in the GDP.
The IMF has previously warned that the global economy is on the verge of geo-economic fragmentation. The main risks of deglobalization are associated by the fund with restricted trade in raw materials and high-tech goods - a complete halt in such flows between “unfriendly” countries can lead to a drop in the global GDP of up to 1.5%.