Forecasts for Economic Growth in Russia and the EU Lowered Again

The HSE Centre of Development made a quarterly survey of forecasters February 13–20. Twenty-five experts, including analysts from Alfa Bank, BCS, Institute of Vnesheconombank, LUKOIL, Morgan Stanley, Nordea Bank, JPMorgan and others, took part in the survey.

Consensus forecast for the GDP in the Russian Federation for 2019 is 1.3%. The forecast was lowered by 0.1 percentage point when compared with the consensus assessment made three months ago. Four of 23 forecasters participating in both surveys reduced their projections for the current year by 0.5 percentage points and more, six by 0.1-0.4 percentage points, eight left the estimates unchanged, and only five increased their forecasts for the current year by no more than 0.1 percentage point.

Survey findings are the same as the official forecasts made by the government for 2019 – the Ministry of Economic Development expects the increase of the GDP by 1.3%. The consensus forecasts made by the economists and the authorities for 2020 are 1.8% and 2% respectively. Growth forecasts for 2021-2025 made by the experts are 1.1-1.4% lower than those of the Ministry of Economic Development.

At the same time, Sberbank lowered its forecast for the ruble exchange rate for the next two years. In December 2018, the bank estimated the average ruble rate at 66.5 rubles/dollar over the current forecast at 68.5 rubles/dollar. The previous projections for 2020 were at 67 rubles/dollar, while now bank analysts estimate the rate at 69 rubles/dollar. Adjusted inflation expectations for 2019 and 2020 vary from 4.8% to 4% respectively.

Previously the European Commission published a new forecast for the economic growth in the Euro area. The GDP of the Euro area is expected to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020 over 1.9% and 2.0% growth forecasts made in November.

Sources: RBK,